Animal Spirits Check-In

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Since this (silly) three-day weekend has been foisted upon us, and we don’t get to trade again until Tuesday morning, I thought I’d do a crypto check-in, since that’s the only market going here on a Sunday morning which might give us some insight into the animal spirits, particularly with respect to geopolitical tensions.

As a person who is fairly heavily short assets, I am encouraged by Bitcoin’s rejection from its trendline. The beautiful head and shoulders top has been badly violated, almost to the point to which the pattern is moot, but my view is that crypto is still in a serious bear market.

btcdrop

A cleaner representation of this is Ethereum.

slopechart ETH

In the alt-coin world, it’s a relative bloodbath. Take a look at Kusama, which used to be practically a blue chip in the alt-coin universe. Can you spot the trend?

slopechart KSM

Another important item in this body of evidence is BTC volume. It tends to be quite sporadic, but I think we can all agree that, broadly speaking, interest in the market is withering away.

voldeath

By way of CryptoStream, I keep track of my portfolio which I closed out around last Halloween, and it’s down a solid 50% right now (in other words, that would have been my HODL return). I am in 43 equity short positions right now, and I find the sheer quantity of superb short setups (evidenced by my 90 members of the Bear Pen) to be quite an enticing environment for the ursine set.