Good morning, everyone. My two principal pre-opening tasks, as always, are (1) to walk my dogs (2) to acquire my chai. Before I do so, and prior to all of us collectively entering the arena, I’ve got two charts to share.
The first is GOLD, whose behavior I applaud. It isn’t every day you wake up to see gold up about fifty bucks an ounce! From a chartist’s perspective, this was an absolutely beautiful breakout, and it was all heralded by the conquering of the descending trendline on February 11th,
OK, cool, but how low will stocks go? Well, as of this moment, I can already see that the BTFD crowd is out in force, and things seem to be stabilizing some. That’s all well and good. There are a FEW things I’ll take profits on, like the very-un-Tim-like SPY put options (expiring tomorrow!!!) that I got yesterday. In some, or even most, cases, however, I’m hanging on. It really depends on the chart. Some of these charts are so gorgeous, even on a sell-off like this, I ain’t closin’.
I think it’s safe to say that getting to 3,800 on the S&P 500 is a safe bet for this year. How soon this year? Lord only knows. But I think that’s a very sensible target.
As I enter the day, I have 51 short positions in total, all of them bearish, and I’ll selectively take profits where appropriate, particularly on the really general stuff. I will say, however, I think we are in an honest-to-God bear market (and I do NOT consider the collapse in early 2020 to be a “bear market” but instead an historic fake-out that was over in basically two weeks).
Today and tomorrow are going to be bonkers. Good luck out there.
