Nightly Reversal

By -

There was the headline, same as always: “Futures Reverse Overnight Losses”. To which the first comment, appropriately, was:

But it’s true. As has been the case, it seems, every day for the past five weeks, I went to bed with nice red futures and woke up to a huge reversal for No Reason At All. It’s become more than a little annoying by this point.

Instead of looking at merely a minute bar chart, let’s look at something a bit more meaningful, which is way back at the weekly bar level. Here we see the /NQ futures with their Fibonacci Retracement levels. We are floating around right near a major one right now, having bounced firmly off the one beneath (and let me say again, this is a weekly chart, so these are huge ranges). So the question of 2022 is whether prices will erode below this level or, instead, if it represents a new level of support.

Of course, the biggest individual stock news is TSLA, which vaulted higher by 8% based on the most worthless of causes: a stock split. Honestly, people, forty years ago when stock commissions were $100 per turn, and “the little guy” really had to struggle to buy a “round lot” and save a little on commission, stock splits had a lot of meaning.

But these days, I seriously don’t get why it should make one bit of difference. It’s the same thing as a 60 year old person declaring that they are no longer sixty but instead are three twenty-year-olds. The math is the SAME. Jesus! You’re still in your autumn years!

Setting aside by bitching, though, for Tesla to peak at a little under $1100 would actually make perfect sense form a charting perspective for two reasons: (1) it would established a lower high whose price spacing and time spacing work very well in the context of the chart (2) it would respect the resistance of the broken trendline. My point is, if I had the sense that God gave a billygoat, I would have been more patient for my short position (entry: 1038) since this pop makes all the sense in the world.