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The market has exploded higher today, filling bulls with joy that the Tradeable Bottom is in and that 7,000 is just around the corner on the S&P 500. To my eyes, the Russell futures simply clamored back to a popular exhaustion point. Of course, that villainous traitor Jerome Powell hasn’t had his show time yet.
I honestly love this market.
Wait, Tim, what? All you have is SHORT positions, the NQ is up triple digits, every single equity futures is bright green, and every tidbit of news out there is bullish. What’s wrong with you??
Oh, plenty is wrong with me, but I still love this market. Every thing about it feels right.
To be sure, I’m pleased to have backed off yesterday. I’ve got a ton of cash and much less exposure than I did 24 hours ago. But, believe you, me, I’m going to be going in with guns a-blazin’ later today, if I can get the prices I want.
The hodgepodge of good news (much of it dreamed up out of whole cloth by China for the support of their own devastated bourses) has sent us flying to the same peak as the “Positive Developments” rally from last week.
(more…)I have been banging the table for weeks to watch for the fabled death cross. While it is not a guaranteed lotto ticket, as a speculator I am simply looking for clues. Big clues as I place larger bets.
There are a few instances where the drawdown is nil. But note, there are none that show 5%+ gains. So the success rate from the death cross to the 50 day crossing up over the 200, is fairly accurate. Do not mind charlatans that also say, ‘In x months after the death cross, we actually saw gains in these years.” It is the same as “if you sell now you will miss the best rally” or “over a long time horizon the markets always are up.“
(more…)For a kid from the cold war like myself, it’s troubling to know that we aren’t at the end of history after all:
(more…)Last year, I frequently mentioned Twilio (TWLO) as an appealing short sale based on its extraordinarily high valuation and its right triangle topping pattern. That played out beautifully for many months, and now it has done an eye-poppingly good job at sealing up its gap. I’d say we can close this a winner!
I will say that I’m holding a number of stocks in my bearish portfolio (is there any other kind? which resemble TWLO but are, I believe, a long way off from finishing their own journeys!
