After such a fantastic day yesterday, I have to wonder if bears are going to be required to pay the piper today. After all, just about every human on the planet stands counter to the bears, so you’d figure after just one good day, we’d get smacked in the face, hard. We’ll see soon.
Overnight, there’s none of that tension. The past nine hours, the market has been grinding around in about a 5 point range on the /ES.
Perhaps the best argument to call for a bounce today can be seen in the /RTY (small cap futures) which is resting daintily on this support line. Let me emphasize this is NOT a Fibonacci retracement (which would be much more a cause for concern); it is merely a line which, in recent weeks, has proved to be support.
Taking a big step back, you can see these series of horizontals (again, NONE of them Fibonacci-based) on these futures. A failure of this line would be, shall we say, glorious.
Even if we do bounce, I don’t expect it to do too much. This intraday top on the NQ is quite clear.
So, too, is that of the /ES, particularly since we’re cleanly below that very important broken trendline.
At 7 a.m. PST (half an hour after the opening bell), we get two “events”; the first is the JOLTS report, which the oddly permabullish site ZH, which has found itself as the mouthpiece of the big investment banks since it changed its stripes, is declaring:
We’ll soon find out.
The other event is, of course, Jerome, who gets to play his little game in front of the House (which will lob him puffball “questions”, which are just thinly-disguised political statements having nothing to do with the FOMC) as he did yesterday with the Senate. His prepared remarks, I suppose, will tumble out the same way they did yesterday at the top of the hour (I say “I suppose” because I simply don’t know; is what he has to do to these clowns any different than what he said yesterday?)
And the third “event”, really, is the Q&A with the Congress critters. I can only wish us all good luck. Yesterday should felt good, but I know enough to know not to get used to it.
