Well, the bulls are off and running again. After enduring a tiny bear market from November 11 2021 until June 16 2022, they’ve been enjoying basically straight-up ever since. The start of 2025 is no exception, as the /NQ is up hundreds of points and the /ES executed a nearly 100 point blast-off from yesterday’s lows (and, by the way, these cleaved weeks are completely screwing with my head; I am fully convinced today is Monday).
Take a breath and get some context, though. A longer-term view of the /ES illustrates that this morning’s mega-rally means precisely dick. Don’t get me wrong; it’s a lousy morning. I’ve got ONE and only ONE position that’s doing well. Otherwise, it sucks out loud!
The lone decent position for me is Boeing (BA) which is the only flicker of red on my entire screen. The gap held beautifully, and at the moment we’ve got a good-looking bearish engulfing pattern.
As for the other positions, I’ve gone ahead and drop-kicked my two ETF positions (GDX and XLF) and am hanging on to everything else. As I so often say, I deliberately choose far-out options to give me breathing room. My minimum expiration presently is April, which is 105 days away, and most of my put options are alive through June.
