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This morning is relatively calm compared to twenty-four hours ago. The big event yesterday was the plunge in crude oil prices whose drop was slightly augmented on the news of an Israel/Iran ceasefire (which, evidently, didn’t even make it through one night). As of crude is down again about another 3%, as it tries to find stability in the mid-60s (HALF the amount the JP Morgan ninnies were screeching about just a few days ago).
In my post on Tuesday 17th June I was looking at an inflection point on Crypto that might break down, and gave targets for that move. That setup started breaking down on Friday and two out of three of those downside target areas, on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) were reached over the weekend.
The target that has not been reached was on Solana (SOLUSD) but there is a decent case for all three making a significant low at the weekend lows.
Back in my post on Monday 12th May I was laying out a scenario where possible large large IHS patterns were forming on Solana and Ethereum and I gave the ideal right shoulder targets at 125.43 on Solana and 2135.28 on Ethereum. The weekend lows were at 126.09 and 2113.65 respectively.
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Apologies, in my previous post (today), I forgot to add a chart for Crude Oil LONG.
Since this scenario is panning out as I write (CL Futures Nymex expiry Aug2025 touched below 68 an hour ago), I think it may be helpful to briefly discuss where this pullback can go.
Here below is the LONG WEEKLY model for CL futures, front month (Aug25).
On the left side, the price model: you can see Crude Oil has already reached the WEEKLY OVERSOLD area! (totally contradicting what I said today, i.e. probably a small pullback).
Probability of reversal in the price support zone below 68 is around 72%, quite high.
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