Hello, warfighters and ceasefire fans!
We awake to another trading day as this war approaches the completion of its first month. Just after the close yesterday (naturally, in this carefully-time government/market joint venture), word spread of a one-month ceasefire, which spiked asset prices. As you can see, the entire night was a grindfest with some clear doubts about the longevity or even veracity of such conversations.
Meanwhile, my decision yesterday to go long gold in a big way is in the so far, so good category, with /GC futures up $144 as of this composition.
I’ve got to say, even when faced when an entirely green quote screen with the pre-opening futures markets, the big picture overwhelms the little one. The size and clarity of the index tops are simply too large for me to shrug off.
There being one exception, of course, which is anything to do with oil. I think the path of the oil and gas index is a lot more on point about what’s going to happen with crude oil than anything a deceitful slimeball like Jared Kushner might utter.
Simultaneously, fear has definitely not left the building. Just take a look at the VIX this week: you have an absolute wipeout when Trump’s big announcement happened before Monday’s open (once all of his long equity/short oil futures trades were in place) and yet even with this “ceasefire” most of that wipeout has been erased.
I am entering this day at a medium risk level, using absolutely no margin. There are no true stinkers amongst the 37 short positions I’m carrying, although I am glaring someone nastily at my BITI position since Bitcoin is being annoying robust. We shall see.
