Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Another Knife Fight at Resistance

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Yesterday’s knife fight resolved up and SPX closed the day at another test of the daily middle band from below. SPX gapped over the middle band at the open and looked as though a trend day was in store until SPX/ES hit declining resistance from the high. That broke up slightly on SPX and has been tested at the high on ES, but held so far. Bulls need to break above 2380 SPX / 2377 ES and bears need a close back under the daily middle band, currently at 2363. Whichever way this breaks may well determine direction for the next few days.

SPX 60min chart:

170405 SPX 60min

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Knife Fight For Direction

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Even if SPX resolves up here, and I’m leaning slightly towards that, the bears have impressed so far this week just by putting up an impressive fight on two consecutive days with very strong historical stats. As a general rule bears are barely noticeable as roadkill on days like these, so regardless of the outcome that is a show of some strength.

However to win this particular battle bears need to convert first the 50 hour MA and then the weekly pivot on ES, and that’s not happened so far at least. The longer that support holds the more dip buyers will be encouraged.

On SPX a triangle is forming that would lean 70% bearish, but at the moment that is trying to break up. Key resistance above is at the open gap at Friday’s close at 2368.06. That is a possible breakaway gap down until it is filled. SPX 60min chart:

170404 SPX 60min

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Testing the New Weekly Pivots

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Bulls needed to confirm Thursday’s break above the SPX daily middle band with a second close above the middle band on Friday, but didn’t manage it. We’re seeing a reaction to that fail so far today. SPX has broken below important trend support at the 50 hour MA, currently at 2355, and if that can be converted to resistance then that would support a possible retest of the daily lower band on the daily chart. SPX 60min chart:

170403 SPX 60min

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Drifting Up

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The third day of the 5dma Three Day Rule came and went without a break down, and SPX closed yesterday above the daily middle band in a clear win for bulls. That needs to be confirmed with another close above the middle band today, and that is currently at 2364.

On the hourly chart the 50 hour MA has been converted to support, currently at 2353, and SPX is trying to do the same with the 100 and 200 hour MAs, currently at 2362 and 2366 respectively. If those convert too then the next target will be falling megaphone resistance, currently in the 2377 area, and I’d note that the falling megaphone is a likely bull flag on the bigger picture, so if that megaphone resistance breaks then the minimum target is then a retest of the all time high. SPX 60min chart:

170331 SPX 60min

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The 5dma Three Day Rule – Day Three

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Today is Day Three on the 5dma Three Day Rule and SPX is testing important resistance on a lot of negative divergence, with an RSI 5 sell signal brewing on the hourly chart. There are also 60min RSI 14 sell signals fixed on ES and TF, with another brewing on NQ. This test of the daily middle band may well be the last really decent chance for bears this week, and what they need to do is reject from the daily middle band at 2364/5 and close enough below it to break the 5dma at 2354/5. This is a nice setup and that could happen. The bulls need a close above the daily middle band ideally, and a close on or above the 5dma at minimum. SPX daily 5dma chart:

170330 SPX Daily 5dma

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