Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bitcoin Low Here?

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I was saying on Wednesday that I was likely to do a crypto post at least once a week in future, and here is the first, as crypto is looking very interesting today.

I’ve been covering BTCUSD, ETHUSD & SOLUSD every day in my premarket videos but haven’t actually done a post on crypto before so those are the three I cover in detail,

Of those three obviously Bitcoin made a big new all time high in March and since then has been consolidating, with three close to that high retests in April, May and June, and then making a new low for this consolidation this morning.

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There Is No Spoon

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It has been a few weeks since my last post, as I’ve had a lot of stuff to sort out. That’s pretty much done & I have returned.

As it happens, this doesn’t look like a bad time to be coming back. My speciality is patterns and reversals and we have some nice patterns and potential reversals forming on NDX and SPX here. They might just deliver yet another break up, but for now we have a decent looking inflection point, and what might be a pretty decent reversal brewing here.

On the bigger picture I was saying at the start of the year that presidential election years in the US tend to lean bullish, and that has certainly been delivering so far in 2024. I’m not really expecting that to change, and if we do see a retracement here, I’d be leaning towards that being a bullish retracement, with at minimum likely all time high retests to come after that completes.

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High Retests Likely

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I mentioned in my post on Tuesday morning that the historical stats for the rest of this week leaned bullish, and that the stats for next week after the holiday all lean bearish, and after the low on Tuesday afternoon we’ve been seeing that deliver so far.

I capped the chart below after the close on Wednesday 14th with the very decent looking rising wedge that had formed from the low on SPX, and that looked as though that might break down on Thursday 15th, delivering a decent right shoulder high on a possible H&S right shoulder.

SPX 1min (after close 14th Feb) chart:

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Taking Stock

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One thing I always like to see on SPX the day after I call a possible high area is a big gap down and I wish that happened every time. Alas it does not, but it was nice to see that happen this morning.

In terms of the trendlines I was looking at in my post yesterday morning, SPX went a bit higher and hit the shorter term resistance trendline that I thought might need a hit. There was a nice rejection there that followed through hard this morning.

SPX daily BBs chart:

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Likely Retracement Coming Soon

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I’m expecting to see a retracement of the move up from the October lows start soon, and there are some targets I wanted to see made on equity indices before that happened. The last two of those were made on Friday.

The first of those was a retest of the all time high on NDX, and we saw a new high there on Friday, with a very nice looking overall rising wedges from both the 2022 low and the October 2023 low. This looks ready to turn soon.

NDX daily BBs chart:

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