Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Significant Technical Break

By -

Well that was interesting yesterday, and that was a really impressive move on equity indices that finally ended the longest trading period in SPX history without a 5% retracement. The mindless bullish euphoria has ended for the moment and overall we should be back in a more two way market environment for a while. In terms of this current move we may now have started a retracement to take us into April or May.

In the video below I’m looking at today’s rally. The obvious target on ES would be the 50% retracement in the 2700 area and Stan is looking at the 2700-40 area. After that the odds favor a retest of the overnight lows, which were of course well below yesterday’s RTH lows. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Seven Percent And Counting

By -

Stan and I did our free monthly Chart Chat at theartofchart.net yesterday. If you missed that you can see the recording on our February Free Webinars page.

I was looking for a decline of more than 5% from the high on SPX to signal that the market was normalising into a more two way trading environment, and that has been hit today, and then some. On the video below I was noting the large amount of positive divergence on various charts and liking the odds for a rally that has not yet materialised, with SPX punching 1% below the daily lower band at the LOD so far.

This is impressive stuff, and the advances/declines level today is suggesting that we may see a repeat of Friday afternoon with a close at or near the low. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Well That Delivered Faster Than Expected

By -

Stan and I are doing our free monthly Chart Chat on Sunday at theartofchart.net. We’ll be covering the usual wide range of instruments and you can register for that on our February Free Webinars page.

No futures charts or video this afternoon as I tripped over this morning while trying to find somewhere in an unfamiliar city using Google Maps. My phone smashed and that, needless to say, is my primary authentication device for accessing my futures charts.

Only a temporary setback as I have a very good iPhone/iPad repair place, and I am a favorite customer with a bulk discount due to my household having a lot of apple devices, mainly being used by three rather careless/clumsy kids. I’ll have the iPhone back tomorrow so I’m inclined to interpret this as a sign from above suggesting that I might consider going to bed early tonight. For a fact, I am rather tired so I think I’ll be doing that. (more…)

Likely Daily Middle Band Test Next

By -

Stan and I are doing our free monthly Chart Chat on Sunday at theartofchart.net. We’ll be covering the usual wide range of instruments and you can register for that on our February Free Webinars page.

ES/SPX just consolidating here at the moment, though if there is a break and conversion of the 50 hour MA now at 2841 that would open a test of the open breakaway gap down from 2853.53. In the absence of a break down the obvious next target would be the daily middle band in the 2800 area. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:

(more…)

Island Top on SPX

By -

Well obviously SPX didn’t do the higher high that I would have preferred, and this morning’s gap down broke down through rising wedge support and also gapped back through the open breakaway gap up from 2839.25. This currently leaves a decent quality island top on SPX and an open breakaway gap down from 2853.53 that I wouldn’t expect to see filled until the current decline is finished.

No clear reversal pattern yet, though there is a poor to medium quality H&S option that I have marked on the chart below. The minimum targets I would generally be looking for on a break of a rising wedge like this are the 38.2% or 50% retracement targets in the 2797 or 2773 areas respectively. SPX 60min chart:

180130 SPX 60min (more…)