I had an interesting question on my twitter that I answered this morning, and it was in response to my tweet at the open on Friday saying that both ES and NQ had formed clear bullish triangles and that I was expecting ATH retests on both. The question was from later in the day when the ATH retests had been done and both indices continued up in a trend day. The question was why the outlook had changed, and my reply this morning was to point out that I had tweeted that I was expecting the retests, but that I had never added that ES and NQ would reverse there. The outlook had not therefore changed. I had expanded on that in Friday’s intraday video before the main move up, but there’s only so much you can put into a tweet. What was interesting about the question is how people read beyond what is actually said. Something I see regularly. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
… And To Finish Monsieur, A Wafer Thin Triangle
I said on my twitter this morning near the open that both ES and NQ had formed bullish triangles that should at minimum deliver full retests of the all time highs on both in the near future. ES did a new all time high this morning and NQ has now scraped a new ATH by a tick this afternoon. Those are the minimum targets made and we could see a reversal here, though obviously we may not, and historically even if we do, significant declines on Friday afternoons are a rarity.
I have a quick look at how these triangles tend to behave on the video below and would also note that these triangle thrusts tend to be termination moves, and if that is the case here, then after the triangle thrust is retraced, ES and NQ are likely to continue down into what might at least be a retracement that lasts more than a day. Who knows, or dares to dream, or can even remember what such a retracement might look like? 🙂 (more…)
Watching the SPX Rising Wedge
I posted my premarket video today as I haven’t done that in a while, and in part that’s because I’m not well and trying to protect my voice today, so it makes sense not to do an intraday video today.
The analysis of equity indices is at the start of the video and I’ve left in the other sixteen instruments I cover every morning in these premarket videos at theartofchart.net. If you’re interested, there are interesting things happening on DX & USD pairs, CL, GC, ZB & HG particularly.
Premarket Video – Update on ES, NQ, TF, and CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, KC, SB, CC & ZW:
The Pig That Flew
ES made a higher high this morning, slightly overthrowing wedge resistance, which could need to be slightly redrawn, and then rejected into a test of wedge support, reversing back up there exactly. That has delivered the move I was looking for yesterday, but if we are really seeing something significant change, then there will need to be a round two. The characteristic bear fail in 2017 was to do the first decline in a sequence, and then resume the uptrend without delivering a follow-up. The next test is to see whether that happens again here. The NQ chart is encouraging there, as the NQ rising wedge broke support at the LOD, and that would generally follow through. Intraday Video – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
The Temporary Oxymoron
ES hit my preferred resistance trendline overnight and then again at the high this morning. There are now high quality rising wedges on ES, NQ and TF and, strange as it seems to use these words in this sequence, this is the nicest short term bear setup that I’ve seen in months. Looked at in detail on the video below. Intraday Video – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
