Hold or Fold

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Obviously the rejection candle opportunity for bears yesterday was a one day only thing, and that day has passed. What we are seeing today is a decent little retracement that has a chance to grow into a larger backtest of the daily middle band. I’m talking about that on the video below: Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:

The specific setup on SPX here is that this is firstly a test of a series of support levels close together. The first double support level is yesterday’s low at 2753.78 and rising support from the lows and both are now broken. The other support level is the open, possible breakaway, gap from Friday’s close at 2747.30. If that gap fills then the path is open to go and backtest weekly pivot at 2731, and maybe the daily middle band now at 2717. There is a decent looking H&S that on a break down would have a target in the 2724 area.

If support holds then SPX heads straight back to the highs. If the support break was to happen tonight, with an opening gap that didn’t fill, then that would be a strong break and candidate island top for what might well then be a completed wave B of an ABC retracement. We’ll see what happens overnight. SPX 15min chart:

180227 SPX 15min