Well, the inflation numbers are out, and although inflation is still heating up, there seems to be a sigh of relief that it wasn’t even worse than it could have been.
Post-CPI
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Yield Curve Not Inflationist’s Friend
The yield curve is flattening
I don’t cheer-lead a given view, but if I were to do that I’d be cheering for a yield curve flattener to put a correction to inflationist dogmatists quoting von Mises to the herds and otherwise sloganeering about inflation and a “commodity super cycle” (that term is pure promo).
Well, the curve is flattening.
Americans Scrambling to Outpace the Rapid Rise in Cost of Living
The rising inflation rate in the United States has hit an all-time high in nearly 31 years. But although Americans may think the prices of food and gasoline will be significantly increased in the coming months – analysts are warning that the lasting effects will ripple through nearly every industry.
In October this year, the chained consumer price index of all urban consumers (C-CPI-U) increased by 0.8%, bringing the national inflation rate up to 6.8%. With the rampant increase, consumers and investors are scrambling to hedge the rising cost of living.
But a report from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis cited in September by the Federal Open Market Committee predicted that inflation will again fall to 2.2% in 2022. (Editor’s Note: HA!)
With the rising cost of living, American paychecks are stagnating.
(more…)The Turn
The two important headlines I saw today both came from Our Dear Leader Powell. In his testimony today, Chairman Powell declared that “It is time to retire the word transitory regarding inflation”, and “the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown.” Finally, he added that the Fed “can consider wrapping up the taper a few months sooner.”
The fact that inflation is here is no shock to the average American, but to hear it come out of the Fed Chairman’s mouth was a bit shocking today. Also, the idea of speeding up the taper has not been priced into markets. I believe soon we’ll be hearing Chairman Powell begin to broach the topic of raising interest rates sooner than expected as well.
So, what does this mean for markets going forward, and are we at a key turning point? If the Fed is now moving to a stance of acknowledging a persistent inflation problem, logic would dictate that a policy response would follow.
(more…)COVID-19: 4th Wave
Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.
NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.
I thought it was interesting that today’s COVID mutant news has piggy backed on top of an already concerning situation as noted last weekend. From the November 21 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole…
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