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There have been a couple of very decent looking short setups here on SPX and NDX this week, and both times the markets just ripped up through them. The bear flags formed and broke up, the SPX, NDX and INDU broke back up over their daily middle bands and are now testing their monthly pivots, while multiple hourly sell signals that had fixed at these obvious resistance levels failed, including two each on ES and NQ. Altogether it was an ugly week for the bears.
In spite of the recent mega-surge in equities, I’d like to point out that the 80,000 foot view of market strength isn’t looking quite so peachy. Below is the chart of the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages.
On Thursday last week I wrote a post looking at the possible four larger bear flags that could form on SPX, NDX, Dow & IWM after the sharp decline on Wednesday afternoon. Of those four, there are three decent looking larger bear flags that have since formed, and this morning we are watching the inflection point where these flags may break down into retests of the retracement lows made on Monday last week.
On SPX the obvious larger flag resistance trendline I drew on Thursday was hit perfectly on Friday and overthrown slightly today.
(more…)My post yesterday was close to the rally high so far and all the bear flags I showed broke down shortly afterwards and continued down the rest of the day.
Now on a break down from a bear flag the target is the retest of the prior low, but there are other options, notably when the flag that has broke down is just the first leg of a larger bear flag that is still forming, so I’ll talk about that today.
On SPX there was a strong break of the bear flag yesterday, 5min RSI 14 buy signals fixed near the lows on all of SPX, NDX, IWM and Dow, and played out this morning. A weak 5min RSI 14 sell signal has now fixed on SPX and it may be that the indices will turn back down here into the retest of Monday’s lows.
(more…)This market is marvelously exhausting. I’m already resenting the weekend ahead, since it’ll create a break in the festivities. Can you imagine if Juneteenth was coming up? The past three days feel like thirty, and the only sad thing is that – – as Colonel Kilgore assured us – – someday this war’s gonna end.
In the meantime, though, the bombs are dropping, and Slope’s 20 years have proved one thing: when the market gets battered, Slope gets popular. It’s only just beginning……….
