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Let’s take a fresh look at three pairs charts. The first one is the NASDAQ 100 divided by the S&P 500. The message here is plain as day: that, yes, tech lead the way for many, many years, but it’s done now. It peaked one year ago (precisely the time that stuff like TSLA was peaking) and it has been breaking down ever since. Reality finally caught up with those insane valuations.
I’m in the throes of moving house at the moment and am struggling to get posts out so there may be just one a week or so until I’ve finished in three or four weeks. It looks like I may actually need to take a whole week off at the end of the month which would be the kind of holiday where I do no charting at all for a full week. That would be the first time in a long long time but might be a good thing, even if I’m not really a holiday person.
(more…)It’s Thursday afternoon, so I fired up the old “Fed Spread” examination in layered charts. Looking at the computed chart, the S&P 500 “should” be at 3850.
Here’s an interesting layered chart I put together this morning. In blue is the SPY and in red is the cumulative advance/decline line. What jumps out at me is how, from the start of the year until October 13th, the lines were pretty much in lockstep, but the most recent rally had a vastly stronger A/D line. Leave your thoughts about what this might mean in the comments section.
My apologies for this being the first post this week. I’m moving very soon and am very busy with that.
As of the close yesterday the bear setup here to get SPX back to double falling channel support in the 3340 area was looking very nice indeed. The smaller falling channel wasn’t broken by the last bounce, and at the close yesterday another Three Day Rule signal fixed looking for a retest of the last low at 3698.15 before any retest of the last high at 3911.75. Now the last Three Day Rule failed, but as that was the only fail of likely over 150 of these signals fixed since the start of 2007, I was thinking that it would likely be a long while before the next fail.
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