As the markets closed on Friday I was concerned about the possibility of a strong bounce starting and the possibility that strong bounce might develop into a major low. Of course, just as promising reversal setups can be steamrollered in strong uptrends, the same can happen in strong downtrends, and we may well be seeing that here. . The triangle targets on ES are still well below here of course, though the strong positive RSI divergence on the ES 60min chart is still worth noting today. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Just the Fibs Ma’am
I have to be out for a few hours before the markets open tomorrow so I’m writing this post after the Thursday close and might add a couple of comments at the bottom when I return 90 minutes or so before the market opens on Friday.
Obviously the broadening ascending wedge on SPX broke today, and as I hoped it might, it broke with an opening gap through wedge support, which is the strongest way to break a pattern trendline. That broken trendline should be good resistance on any counter-trend bounce that we might see here. SPX then tested the 1598 low, bounced a little and then broke down through it. That was also a very significant support break, as I explained in my last post. (more…)
Testing Wedge Support Take #2
I have a working hypothesis for the next year or so on equities. The high so far this year shows no signals of a bull market high, so I’m looking for a summer retracement to test the SPX 200 DMA, currently at 1504 (and rising obviously), and attempt a test of the SPX weekly lower bollinger band over 1500, currently at 1488 and rising. SPX would then make a tradeable low and the next move into the 2014 spring/summer high would begin. I have more to say on downside targets on a break below the current June lows, but I’ll talk about those another day. (more…)
Ten Things Bernanke Isn’t Telling You
Actually, I don’t have a single thing to say about what Bernanke isn’t telling you. I just thought I’d steal the Utterly Ghey technique that those yo-yos over at MarketWatch use as click-bait. Maybe I’ll up the ante by going all Business Insider on you and make every one of my tweets start with “Here Comes…….”, but presently my self-respect won’t permit it. (more…)
Distorted Reflections – Bonds
I want to have a good look at bonds today but first I’ll look at the IHS patterns that we’ve been watching develop since I posted the first chart looking at this possibility on SPX last Friday. On ES the IHS is forming nicely, with the next obvious step being to recover over the 50 hour MA, which was intraday resistance yesterday. The IHS shoulders look balanced so for good symmetry this IHS should ideally break up today, and no later than tomorrow. ES 60min chart: (more…)
