Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Last Move Up (by Springheel Jack)

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As I suspected on Friday morning, ES broke above 1510/1 resistance and is heading back for a retest of the highs. My primary scenario has the second high of a double-top forming there and as there were clear 60min RSI divergence signals at the last high and low on ES, I'll be looking for that near the retest of the highs. The ES 60min RSI is already back to overbought so a signal may well form. I have trendline support from the low in the 1511.5 area and we may well see a decent retracement before the highs are retested:

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Bounce Options (by Springheel Jack)

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ES went lower after the open yesterday, but the positive divergence on the 60min RSI only increased in force and we are now seeing the bounce from that. It is possible that the retracement low is in, but I don’t think so, I have two main scenarios here and both are assuming that a topping pattern is forming that would target the 1460 ES area, which is a decent fit with the main downside targets that I was giving yesterday. The first option is that an H&S is forming, in which case the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 1511 area. The second is that we have seen the first high of an interim double-top, and if we see a confident break over 1511 today this will be my main scenario. That would obviously assume a test of the current highs. Here’s how that looks on the ES 60min chart:

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Silver Tests Primary Support (by Springheel Jack)

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SPX went nowhere on Friday, closing the week some 15 points below the weekly upper bollinger band. This doesn't mean much in terms of retracement, but as this band is still rising at 10 or so points per week, if SPX continues to hug the upper band then that gives potential upside of 25 points from Friday's close into strong resistance. That's well worth bearing in mind:

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Overheating Charts (by Springheel Jack)

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Not much from StockCharts today as one of their servers failed overnight due to a cooling failure. Service is back up now but most of today's charts are from elsewhere. 

Another dull day on SPX as it inched higher. The close was at 1522, the obvious target for the bull flag that broke up yesterday morning is in the 1525-30 area, and if we are to close yet another week at the upper weekly bollinger band that should finish the week in the 1533 area. If we should see a sharp move to the 1530 area there are good odds there of at least a short term retracement:

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