Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Opposing H&S Patterns (by Springheel Jack)

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I laid out a number of options yesterday morning for likely direction. Bullish and bearish options #1 were straight breaks of the 1335 SPX resistance or 1290 SPX support levels respectively, but I mentioned that I thought these were less likely than the alternatives. 

Bullish and bearish options #2 involved forming the right shoulder on a bearish H&S indicating to 1275 SPX, or forming the right shoulder on a bullish IHS indicating to 1405. The action yesterday was consistent with both of these H&S patterns and I'll run through how each option looks today. 

Bullish option #1 is the straight break up through 1335 SPX area resistance. I still think this is a less likely option but in support of this option we have the SPY daily bollinger band chart, where you can see that the middle bollinger band, now at 131.58, has now acted as support for each of the last four trading days, with either the open or close very close to it each day. 1290 SPX is main support here in my view, but to test it we will have to see a conviction break below the middle band, currently in the 1311 area:


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Rising Channels (by Springheel Jack)

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That was a nice looking IHS scenario on various indices on Friday morning, but realistically it’s not going to happen. Technically it still could, as ES isn’t currently much above Friday’s highs, but the problem with it now is that SPX moved clearly up from support at the middle bollinger band on the daily chart on Friday, and we most likely won’t now see a retracement below there (1315 area today) before SPX hits either the upper bollinger band (1352) or the triple resistance area at 1357-8, which has the April low at 1357-38, the 50 DMA at 1356.92 and the 100 DMA at 1358.02. I’m treating the 1357-8 area as the most likely upside target if this is just a rally:

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Testing the 200 DMA (by Springheel Jack)

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SPX closed below the daily 200 SMA (200 DMA) on Friday, though not yet with a conviction break. If we see more downside today then I have two main support levels below before we see a test of channel support from the 2009 low in the 1180 area. The first is in the 1250-60 area, which was support for the 2011 H&S, and the next is in the 1210-20 area, with the 2010 high at 1219.80, key resistance last summer before the October low, and the technical target for the bear flag on SPX that broke down last week. I've marked these on an updated version of the weekly chart that I posted on Friday morning:

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