Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Ante Omnia Armari

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I’m concluding latin post title week with a phrase which means ‘before all else, be armed’. This market could get very interesting over the next few weeks, hard as that might be to imagine after the last few weeks. We must all be careful not to get caught on the wrong side of a trade that goes the other way hard. The mini-crash almost exactly a year ago followed an August daily band compression that was smaller than this one.

Decent market information is a useful weapon too of course, Stan and I are analysts rather than clairvoyants but on a good day it can be hard to tell one from the other. I’m particularly pleased with this video that I recorded last night for our Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net, which has given me a very nice morning and a great start to the holiday weekend. I’ll go through the calls on the companion bonus charts below, which were used in the video and then posted for subscribers afterwards. I’ve not included the ES and TF charts as I was mainly relying on the NQ chart for equity index direction, for reasons that should be obvious on the video and chart: (more…)

Poised for a Breakout

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There are a couple elements of this perma-rising market which I actually applaud. One of them is precious metals, which I hope roar to the moon and beyond. The second is bonds. Looking at the chart below, it seems to me the long bond is getting ready to add another leg to its incredibly long-lived bull market. Why people think Yellen might raise rates next week is beyond me. It seems the market believes interest rates are going to hang out near zero for pretty much the rest of our lifetimes.

0608-TLT

Engine Trouble

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I was saying yesterday that SPX was in an inflection point and the direction of the resolution was important, and the bears then immediately dropped the ball at the open to allow the cycle trend day to deliver a strong trend up day. This has brought SPX up to another inflection area in the 2040-50 range that was range support February through July last year, and that is being tested hard this morning. If bulls break through it that opens up the IHS target in the 2082 area and a possible retest of the all time high at 2134.

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Bold Numbers

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Apologies for the very late post today. I had a morning appointment that overran badly, and it’s slower work getting charts done after the markets open and I’m then trading as well as charting.

I mentioned on twitter last night after the close that the bulls narrowly managed to avoid a 5dma three day rule breakdown with a target at a retest of the lows. There was more downside overnight that reached my ideal target on ES at a retest of the 1850 area and ES then reversed back up hard there. There is a strange myth that globex highs and lows always need to be retested soon after. I’ve been watching that for a while and have seen little evidence to support this, and there’s no need to see that here.

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