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Ever since eclipse day (the 21st of August), markets have been surging higher, thanks, it seems, to the distinct lack of nuclear missiles flying through the air. The small caps are up nearly 6% in that brief timespan, but I think it would do us all good to keep the big picture in mind.
Here’s the index for the past twenty years. As you can see, we have hit that red resistance line five times now, turning back in each instance.
I keep looping back to the word “annoying” to describe the market, and that still seems to fit. The goddamned thing just won’t go into a freefall. To be clear, I had a good week, but good God almighty, it’s way too much work. Market Gods, throw me a bone here! Give me a morning where the ES is down 50! Do it for the Timster.
Anyway, one big theme all year long has been the US dollar’s steady progression from (1) mega-powerful currency to (2) quilted toilet paper. I suspect this trend will continue as Trump continues to bungle his way through his only term.
Sometimes I like to trot these lumbering monthlies out so we can quiet everything down and see where various markets are slowly heading.
First of all, as I go down with my ‘strengthening US dollar’ ship*, I also mal-projected copper’s upside. I’d felt that $3/lb. would cap Doctor Copper because it is very clear lateral resistance at a handy 38% Fib retrace.**
Not to get all Elliott-Wavey on you, but I’ve made a very slight change to my $SPX chart with respect to its Fibonacci retracement. Specifically, I’ve moved the lower extreme to the 1980 low instead of the 1982 low, which I should have done in the first place!
I posted the premarket video I did today for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net on my twitter before the open, and if you missed that you can see that here. I try to post one of these here a week as it also gives updates on the futures for USD, oil, nat gas, gold, 30yr treasuries, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa and wheat as well as the usual ES, NQ & TF.
I did the SPX & RUT charts below on Saturday so they don’t include the action from this morning so far. I’ll be adding update notes to cover the action so far today.
On RUT I was looking at the low last week at short term rising wedge support. While that support was holding an all time high retest was very much on the table. That has broken this morning and that opens a high probability double top target in the 1410 area, and a target within the larger channel at channel support, currently in the 1373 area. RUT 60min chart: (more…)
