Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Nice Smile and Impressive Beard

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In my post on Sunday 1st June I was looking at the historically bearish leaning stats over four of the next six trading days and looking for a modest retracement that we then saw. I also mentioned that the last of those bearish leaning days was today, and that tomorrow through Monday 16th lean strongly bullish. Wednesday and Friday next week are the day before and after the holiday on Thursday 19th June, and lean neutral to slightly bullish historically, and we would often see modest volume and trading ranges, particularly as Friday is also quad witching June opex.

This is the start of a bullish opportunity window that may last for the next month or so particularly as the very important case on the legality of most of Trump’s tariffs being reviewed by the Supreme Court has been delayed until the end of July, and the 90 day window that delayed most of those tariffs in April is currently scheduled to expire on July 9th, with a general 50% tariff on all important from the EU also scheduled to start that day. I am wondering whether we might see a further 30 day delay of that July 9th window into August to land after that key Supreme Court decision.

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Setup For a Bull Run on Crypto

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In my last posts on In Monday 12th May and Thursday 22nd May I was looking at the possible setup for a retracement on Crypto that might then set up a substantial bull run on Crypto after that retracement was complete. That retracement is not yet necessarily complete, but I think it may well be, so today I want to look at that retracement, explain why I think that may be ending a bit early, and look at the large bullish IHS patterns forming on Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) that may deliver major high retests on both while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) makes substantial new all time highs.

Looking at the daily chart Bitcoin broke below the daily middle band into a test of the lower band, the 50dma and the 100k level. They held as support and Bitcoin is trying to break back over the daily middle band. The daily RSI 5 sell signal reached the full target. If the daily middle band is successfully converted back to support then this retracement is likely complete.

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A Modest Proposal

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In my last post on Sunday 1st June I was looking at the bullish leaning stats for yesterday and today and that’s been delivering. I was leaning towards seeing a retest of the May highs on ES and NQ at 6008 and 21858 respectively and we may still see those today but ……. there is another possibility that I’m considering if those highs aren’t retested today.

Of the next six days four of them lean significantly bearish historically and there is a window there for some more consolidation and possible retracement and, while these stats are just a loose guideline, I am wondering if we might see that. We’ll see. I would note though that the window closes after that, with the subsequent three days all leaning bullish.

That’s not what this post is about though. I’ve been talking all year about seeing weakness in the first half of the year and then new all-time highs in the second half of the year, and while the initial weakness was faster and harder than I was expecting, I am still expecting that follow through into new all-time highs, and I want to lay out my preferred as well as my most bullish scenario for seeing that over coming weeks.

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The Dog That Didn’t Bark

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My apologies for this unusually long post. This has been a very interesting week on Crypto and there is a lot to look at. I did consider splitting this into two shorter posts but decided it is better to just do a longer post today.

In my last post on Monday 12th May I was looking at the possibility that large IHS reversal patterns might be forming on Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and that there might be a large retracement across the board on those two and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) while right shoulders were established on those IHS patterns.

Last Friday, as the modest retracement we have seen this week on equities was setting up, my working assumption was that this retracement on Crypto would happen mostly as that retracement played out on equities, as the retracement between Crypto and equity indices is historically very strong, but that didn’t deliver as I expected and while what did happen was interesting, what didn’t happen was potentially much more interesting. Let’s have a look at that.

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The End of the Beginning

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In my last post on Thursday 8th May I was looking at the bear flag inflection point that US equity markets were in last week. That broke up hard on the 90 day delay on most of the China tariffs over the weekend.

I was saying in that post that a break and conversion of the 200dma on SPX would open a possible retest of the all time highs, and the 200dma on SPX has now been converted with a strong gap over it on Monday and closes well above it every day this week.

Is this the end of market excitement this year? I think probably not, but it is the end of the beginning of that market excitement, and I think a retest of the SPX all time high soon is now likely.

After that I still think that the main event of the markets this year may be based around a crisis in the bond markets but elsewhere there are still important points to remember.

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