Out of my dozens of short positions, here are the five I think have the best long-term prospects for going lower.
Long-Termers
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Important Crypto Inflection
In my last post on Wednesday 22nd October I was looking at the major support being tested on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and saying that sustained breaks below those support levels would boost the case that the bull market on Crypto has already ended, barring possible high retests as part of the topping process. This was and is a major inflection point, and the direction of the break from this inflection point is still in the balance.
I was noting that the last two bull market highs on Bitcoin were in December 2017 and November 2021, close to the end of the year and four years apart, so the end of 2025 is the obvious period to be looking for an end to the current bull market, and I’ve had that pencilled in at the likely topping area all year.
On the Bitcoin weekly chart the first big support is the weekly middle band, which was tested as support for six or the seven weeks before Bitcoin broke below it at the weekly close before last. That failed to confirm the support break at the end of last week with Bitcoin closing back above it. Bitcoin is back below that again at the moment.
(more…)Annual Bars to Consider
Instead of the normal daily bar charts, let’s do something unusual and check out a much cruder granularity: annual bars. That’s right – – just a single bar to represent the billion things that take place inside a calendar year.
Below is the SPY going back for about eighty years. I have highlighted with rectangles two portions to make a particular point.
Gold Rules the Roost
Gold’s strength isn’t a one day, one week, or one month thing. The king of precious metals has outperformed equities over every meaningful time horizon. If the media presented the stock market in real money terms (that is to say, gold) the interest in the stock market would be 10% of what it is today, because people would realize that stocks peaked in late 1999 and haven’t revisited those highs since!
All Most Done
I’ll start off with a simple fact: on an intraday basis, today was the highest price level in the history of the Milky Way Galaxy on almost every major index. Also, today my entire portfolio was 25 short positions, and of those, 19 closed down and 6 closed up. Added to which, some of the downs were much meatier than the ups, the largest of which was 1.59% (versus -6.05% for the biggest down). The point I am trying to make is that carefully-selected charts can sometimes defy the market.
