Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Occam’s Razor

By -

I was expecting yesterday’s post to be a bit controversial and it was. However the job of the analyst is to see the evidence, assess it, and analyze the relevant data to reach a conclusion. This might be described as the SAA method. If you reverse this to start with your conclusion, you risk making an AAS out of yourself. 🙂

Occam’s Razor is the proposition that when there are a number of competing hypotheses to solve a problem, then the simplest hypothesis is likely to be the correct one. In essence this is a mathematical expression of the truism that if something looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, and acts like a duck, then it’s probably a duck. (more…)

Brave New World

By -

I’m planning a series of weekend posts that will be linked together under the title of Brave New World. There are following up from the series of major resistance breaks on SPX over the last twelve months, and will be putting the case for seeing what could well be a massive bubble on equities over the next few years, now that all those obvious reversal levels have been broken.

(more…)

US Dollar and Bonds

By -

SPX recovered to test the highs on Friday and closed six points below the weekly upper bollinger band at 1639. It’s very rare to see a significant break above the weekly upper bollinger band, and that can only rise at about ten points per week, so we are unlikely to see any powerful further drives up without some consolidation or retracement first. Any immediate weekly rises from this level will be incremental: (more…)

One Chart and One Thought

By -

Well, the whole FOMC thing turned out to be pretty anti-climatic. There’s still an hour left in the trading day as I’m typing this, so who knows how we’ll end up, but so far, the tug-of-war seems pretty even between bulls and bears.

For myself, I covered my GLD short early today, but I left most other shorts intact. I am 75% committed; I intended to get aggressive if things really started breaking down, but they haven’t, so I’m standing still for now.  (more…)