Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
If you decided at the end of March to curl up in bed and sleep for the entire month, you would have been spared a lot of unnecessary trauma. I present to you, shaded in green, the change in the SPY for the entire month of April. Zilch. Bupkis. Dick. De minimus. Take your pick of the term representing nothing.
It has been a really interesting year on the markets so far for me but the winds are changing and I want to review where I think the equity markets stand and where we may see them go from here.
I was saying in a post back on December 2nd that 2025 might well be the most interesting year on the markets in a long time, and that has definitely turned out to be the case. I’ve had an amazing run this year which can’t and won’t last forever but has been a lot of fun.
In a post on 22nd January I was looking at possible new all time highs to set up big topping patterns on SPX, QQQ, DIA & IWM. On 10th February I was looking at getting those new all time highs on SPX, QQQ and DIA in the next few days. On 19th February, the day SPX made the current all time high, I showed the high quality double top targets on SPX, QQQ and DIA, and the lower quality H&S pattern on IWM. All of those patterns subsequently broke down and reached target.
(more…)One of the most important pairs charts I follow is $AW01//GC, which is the All World Equity Index divided by Gold futures prices. After months of waiting, the pattern finally completed, and the rally right now is accomplishing nothing more than a retracement to the bottom of the pattern. The next logical move would be a hard swoon lower, blasting below lows set earlier this month.
How long will it take? Who knows. Weeks? Months, maybe? But I have every confidence it’s coming.
On 10th November last year I wrote a post entitled Strange Days on US Treasuries. In that post I was looking at a very important inflection point that looked likely to be coming up on US Treasuries over the next few months to a year. I would suggest you read that post for the detailed analysis there of the outlook for US debt levels and interest payments as I’ll be looking at those in less detail this week.
This is currently a series of (likely) four posts reviewing the US Dollar, US Treasuries, and why the US Dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency. I published the first post in this series on the US Dollar on Monday last week and you can see that here.
After writing a lot of this review on bonds it has become clear that I can’t fit it into one post so I am dividing it into two. This post will look at historical bull and bear markets on bonds, the setup for a major increase in bond yields over coming months and years, and why that might play out rapidly rather than slowly.
(more…)I’ve been mulling over the best way to do my review of the US dollar, US treasuries, and why the US dollar may lose its status as the world’s main reserve currency, and how that might look, and I’m splitting this into three posts this week.
The first post is this one and will look at the US dollar and where it may go from here.
The second post will look at US treasuries and where they may head from here.
The third post will be looking at the US dollar’s status as the main reserve currency, US treasuries as the main reserve asset for US dollars, why that may already be changing, and what other options might replace it over the next few years.
(more…)
