Well, thank God for oil.
The plunge in OIH and related companies was the only thing they kept things decent for me today. My NDX and QQQQ puts – – fat with profits yesterday – – were closed out with a loss, thanks to the explosion higher in those markets. I bailed out of my RUT puts as well, given the ungodly terrifying pattern that has shaped up on an intraday basis. All in all, the day was a wash, but it would have been a disaster were it not for the plunge in oil.
The market's strength pushed complacency and the $VIX down to new 2008 lows. We are approaching the levels seen last Christmas, when the market was extremely strong. It's amazing, but the VIX is half its value from its January peaks. Boy, those were the days, weren't they?
The tinted area of the Russell shown below is, to my eyes, very, very, very dangerous. Friday morning's employment figures will give it some direction, of course. But it could be a disaster.
With all my worrying, someone sent me an email today asking, "whose side are you on?" I'm on the side of profits. I'm on the side of minimizing losses. No one is going to pay me to be a permabear.
One pattern that I've mentioned repeatedly which had formerly given me comfort was $MSH. Well, that neckline got sliced today. I suppose one could nudge the neckline higher, but I really don't like cheating my charts.
The S&P 100 is butting right up against its Fibonacci retracement level. Of course, it could slice right through this tomorrow, just like the $MSH cut through its neckline today.
Even more perilous is the S&P 500, which is banging up against a variety of technical lines. In addition, most of the Elliott Wave stuff I've been reading has declared 1,410 as a line in the sand for S&P, so this is a very dangerous time for this index too.
Lastly, I beefed up my short positions on China today. I am anticipated a softening in this market soon.
Today was pretty rough for me, both with the indexes zooming higher (in spite of yesterday's miniature victory!) and all kinds of technical troubles here at the office. I sure hope Friday is better on all fronts.
