I've been studying late at night for my CMT test this Friday, and I was reminded by the FSLR chart how bullish the ascending triangle pattern can be. And, with that, I decided to sell my FSLR put (singular, just one) this morning at a loss. Congrats, Beanie! This is your day in the sun (literally).

The GDP came in at (gasp…….) a positive number, which I guess means, based on the current data, that we're not (and maybe won't be………who knows……..) in a recession. The market's reaction was positive, but hardly a blow-out. I guess everyone is on pins and needles for 2:15 EST when the Fed announces.

Now, here, from Slope HQ, is a brief update from our intrepid energy analyst……

Today could be a pivotal day for energy stocks and the whole energy/ materials
trade that has dominated the markets YTD. No, it?s not because of the DOE weekly
inventory report due out at 10:30 EDT. It?s not because of earnings reports by
major oil companies (most of which have ?beat? by a wide margin), nor gas and
heating oil futures expiration at session end. Rather, today could be a day
where industry specific fundamentals don?t matter. The reason is that equity
markets may decide that a floor for the US dollar has been set if the Fed truly
makes one final nominal cut in rates and is then done. This view has already
been firmly reflected in the price action of gold, and even more so in the price
of gold equities, which have been hammered over the last 30 days. Oil stocks,
however, have not corrected and are sitting just below mostly all-time highs.

The charts look extended. Even the commodity looks like it should pull-back to
the $105 – $110 per barrel range. If this happens, the sector could correct 10%.
Recall that OIH was below $165 just 40 days ago. The point is that the threat of
sector rotation over the next several days is real and bold bets on the long
side may not be warranted. The threat is magnified by the fact that today is the
end of hedge fund performance reporting for April when the long energy/materials
trade was a huge contributor to monthly performance. If SPY and IWM break-out
today after the Fed decision at 2:15, it will likely be at the expense of OIH
and XLB. We shall see.

Well, as I've been saying, tomorrow (Wednesday) is going to be huge. An hour before the opening bell, we get the early GDP report (subject to revision – twice – in the near future). With so many people saying we're not in a recession, it'll be interesting to see what the data indicates. Then, at 2:15 EST, the Fed does their announcement. Every character, comma, and space is going to be interpreted to death.

From a charting perspective, it's impossible to say what will happen except that it'll be big. I have only one index position – – a fairly large-sized put – – but I'm definitely keeping a lot of cash on the sidelines just in case of some (God forbid) bullish blowout.

 I got rid of my NDX puts today, because I really don't like the action here. I know that $MSH looks good, but $NDX is what I had puts on, and this chart worries me.

Added to which, the $COMPQ is exhibiting a pattern that has had very bad (for bears) results in the past few years.

On a brighter note – – and I actually had a pretty good day – – my dozens of shorts in oil are doing great. OIH has only lost about 6% of its value since its peak, but I really like how this is shaping up.

Likewise, my double-inverse ETF on oil, DUG, had a good day too. I bought these on the day where the low was made.

My puts on MDR also did well, with the stock falling nearly 9% today. This is another nice example of an attempt at a bullish breakout that failed, similar to ISRG.

And………finally!…….my puts on BHI are shaping up. I like the way the price is moving away from that trendline.

0x

One other favorite of mine is GENZ, which ever-so-slowly is building what could be a terrific head and shoulders pattern. If complete, this could take GENZ down to the low 50s.

That's it from me. I'll be watching IWM like a hawk at 5:30 a.m. my time. I offer something that I usually cannot – – and guarantee – – and it is this: April 30th is going to be really, really interesting.

This week's Barron's had an interesting article about stocks that would probably suffer if the dollar regains its strength. My view is that the poor ol' greenback is probably in for some recovery, so I found this article of particular interest (particular since, of the sixteen issues they mentioned, I already had puts on half of them). Anyway, here are the charts of the stocks they pointed out: