First, let me mention that I'll be at the Las Vegas Money Show on Tuesday (not exhibiting or speaking; just wandering around). I used to go to those kinds of shows all the time, especially when Prophet did trade shows, but it's been a few years. Invariably, there are only three booths or so with anything new and interesting. Given my hiatus, there's probably more like ten things I haven't seen at this point. It should be fun.
What isn't fun these days – for bears at least – is the markets. The two month long "bear rally" (hopefully named………) is still in full force and is making some very threatening-looking signs. Today's strength was pretty disturbing. If oil starts to head sharply lower – which could easily be interpreted as a positive for many stocks – that could be the catalyst to push the indexes into a constructive bullish pattern. I've circled the "drop dead zone" for the S&P 500, which is only about 20 points away.
The NASDAQ Composite is even more likely to break out of its range.
And the NASDAQ 100 is just a hair's breadth away from doing so.
The volume wasn't impressive today, but it wasn't been impressive any time recently. Setting that aside, today was very positive for the bulls. The IWM blasted over two full percentage points higher, and it is very close to breaking above the range we've all been following.
Most remarkable of all, in light of $125/bbl oil, the Transports are shaping up to potentially blast to lifetime highs. Whereas the Dow 30 is a long way from crossing above its 2007 highs, another day or two like today would put the $TRAN into record territory.
The only "relief" I had today was due to my many bearish oil positions. It's not like oil plunged………it was only down a little bit. But it was the first day this month that was at all weak. I offer my Elliott Wave warning once more – – I am very new to these – – but here's my take on the crude oil market right now.
Gold is in a more predictable bearish pattern. I've got puts on the $XAU, and I'm feeling pretty good about the prospects for this commodity. I'd look to exit around the $790 to $800 range.
Of course, the $XAU played this little with me before last year. In December, a smallish head and shoulders pattern complete, but it didn't yield anything. We've got the same thing going now, but the pattern is about twice as big. Stay tuned on this one!
Lastly, I'm sure you've noticed the $VIX hit new 2008 lows today, indicating a combination of confidence and complacency. Oh, how I miss mid-March!
There are a handful of securities that I'm tracking for possibility call purchases (e.g. long positions). One of them is Bank of America (BAC).
A new put position I got into today is for Conoco (COP), which has a potential triple top here.
Lastly, my old buddy GENZ keeps inching down, getting closer and closer to completing what could be a really nice H&S pattern.
It might not be until late Tuesday that I have time to do another post. I'll be traveling a lot that day. So tawk amongst yerselves!
