Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Slippery Slope of Hope

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As obsessed as I am with oil these days, today's blog title seemed appropriate to me. Anyway, crude oil blasted to a new unprecedented high. Here's the June contract, along with my earnest attempt at identifying the Elliott count.

This kind of action, coupled with a disturbing inflation report, rattled the equity markets. The Dow fell 200 points today (hurray!). My portfolio was up nicely. Only "nicely", not "great", since I've got a fair number of energy-oriented shorts.

As I've said repeatedly – and I'll keep saying it! – until the S&P 500 breaks below 1,383, bears should not rest easy. Embrace paranoia! I am watching the 120 day minute bars of the IWM. I've highlighted the area where things have become "muddled" following what should have been a bullish breakout. This muddle is, frankly, what all our hopes are pinned on right now.

The S&P's breakout from an inverted head and shoulder pattern at about 1,385 is very clear. We could simply be in the process of retracing to that neckline now. Let me be very clear about this: we could slice another 38 points off the S&P at this point and simply be setting the bulls up for a sensational rally. So let's not get giddy about any of these drops. Until 1,383 is broken, we can only offer prayers to God.

I've still got my gold puts, but if 195.12 is broken, I'm out of those. This is looking pretty grim.

My brokerage/investment bank puts are doing better, however. The $XBD is starting to look pretty sweet.

My only index position at this point – and it's pretty substantial – is on the $NDX. Its close cousin, the $COMPQ, is shown below. Breaking below 2,450 would bolster the bearish case substantially.

One of the cleaner patterns in the world of investment banks is the broadening top of JP Morgan. Wouldn't it be something if we could take out March's lows?

Solar bulls (cough, Beanie, cough) should be very distressed that as oil is pushing into $130 territory, their stocks are actually falling. Errr, guys, that's not a good sign. If crude starts to fall, these things are going to simply collapse.

My mentioned of Lindsay (not Lohan, but the stock) yesterday caused a bit of interest in the comments section. The neckline on this is plain as day. Breaking it would imply a move to the $60s.

For a 200 point whack on the Dow, today wasn't sensational, but I'll take what I can get. What I really need is the one-two bunch of a falling equity market and falling oil market. Then the green starts to fly. Until tomorrow (tips hat..……..)

Ship of Fools

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I have long marveled at how Americans (or should I write American's) have difficulty with the simple rules of English. My observation is that it's difficult to underestimate the general ignorance and stupidity of the public, but when I see official signs in major metropolitan airports like this, I cringe:

I mean, Christ, people, this isn't complicated: you add an S to the end of a noun to make it plural, unless it ends in an "S" sound, in which case you add ES. (examples: idiots, morons, bulltards, nitwits, vexations).

My own readers, of course, have no patience for such errors. There is a very well known financial blogger – whom I shan't name – that can't seem to deal with apostrophes. He uses them to make nouns plural, and he uses them to (unnecessarily) make possessive pronouns assert their possessive function. I have stopped frequenting his site altogether since I simply cannot take the mental anguish.

All right. I'm done for now. Go back to work.

Million View Club

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In introduced this new platform to the world a couple of months ago, and last night Slope passed the million view mark. Whoo hoo! Ironically, those two months were, for most of the readers here, filled with a lot of angst and frustration. But perhaps our purgatory is at an end, yes?

I've pointed out the record days for viewing during that time which – interestingly enough – marked precisely the point where the market whipped around and started heading hire. The Slope Viewership Contrarian Indicator works marvels!