As obsessed as I am with oil these days, today's blog title seemed appropriate to me. Anyway, crude oil blasted to a new unprecedented high. Here's the June contract, along with my earnest attempt at identifying the Elliott count.
This kind of action, coupled with a disturbing inflation report, rattled the equity markets. The Dow fell 200 points today (hurray!). My portfolio was up nicely. Only "nicely", not "great", since I've got a fair number of energy-oriented shorts.
As I've said repeatedly – and I'll keep saying it! – until the S&P 500 breaks below 1,383, bears should not rest easy. Embrace paranoia! I am watching the 120 day minute bars of the IWM. I've highlighted the area where things have become "muddled" following what should have been a bullish breakout. This muddle is, frankly, what all our hopes are pinned on right now.
The S&P's breakout from an inverted head and shoulder pattern at about 1,385 is very clear. We could simply be in the process of retracing to that neckline now. Let me be very clear about this: we could slice another 38 points off the S&P at this point and simply be setting the bulls up for a sensational rally. So let's not get giddy about any of these drops. Until 1,383 is broken, we can only offer prayers to God.
I've still got my gold puts, but if 195.12 is broken, I'm out of those. This is looking pretty grim.
My brokerage/investment bank puts are doing better, however. The $XBD is starting to look pretty sweet.
My only index position at this point – and it's pretty substantial – is on the $NDX. Its close cousin, the $COMPQ, is shown below. Breaking below 2,450 would bolster the bearish case substantially.
One of the cleaner patterns in the world of investment banks is the broadening top of JP Morgan. Wouldn't it be something if we could take out March's lows?
Solar bulls (cough, Beanie, cough) should be very distressed that as oil is pushing into $130 territory, their stocks are actually falling. Errr, guys, that's not a good sign. If crude starts to fall, these things are going to simply collapse.
My mentioned of Lindsay (not Lohan, but the stock) yesterday caused a bit of interest in the comments section. The neckline on this is plain as day. Breaking it would imply a move to the $60s.
For a 200 point whack on the Dow, today wasn't sensational, but I'll take what I can get. What I really need is the one-two bunch of a falling equity market and falling oil market. Then the green starts to fly. Until tomorrow (tips hat..……..)
