What will give people reason to bid stocks up? What will be the catalyst?
I think it's going to be purely psychological (as opposed to logical). Namely:
- Christmas (oh, sorry, "the holiday season") – let's face it, it's a cheerful time of year.
- New Year – this is the biggie………people delude themselves at the start of each January that Things Will Be Better. They're going to stop smoking; they're going to lose that spare tire; they're going to end all that heavy drinking; they're going to go for that big promotion. The disappointments that saturate February through December in all the prior years of their lives don't seem to ever sink in, so each year they tell themselves the same little tales. 2009 will be the year everything gets better. You betcha. Go for it!
- The Inauguration – this is sort of the political version of the man-made temporal change. Now that Bush is leaving office, everything's going to get better. Renewal. Redemption. Hope. Change. Yep.
America, embrace the cheer! Caress hope. Go dew-eyed over change. Bid those stocks up. Thank you. I'll be in touch.
