Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Thursday

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My "remainder of 2008" bearishness was the right tack today, as the Dow lost a couple hundred more points. I imagine as we approach the endpoint of the year, tax-loss selling (and, let's face it, there are a lot of losses to take) is going to generate selling pressure. As for interest rates, we took yet another plunge. Even the ten-year note is yielding just 2%, a record low.

I used to follow the NZD/USD with as much interest as I currently follow the EUR/USD; take note how the recent surge helped it tag the 50% retracement (which was strong support before), but now it's starting to fall away again.

Likewise, commodities – – – which in the eyes of the $CRX climbed over 40% in just one month's time! – – seem to have hit a brick wall.

My precious metals short did well today, but today's drop definitely took the "froth" out of the recent rise. Let's see if there's more downside to come; I imagine there is.

I've got a couple of index-based positions. One is a smallish short on the ES (12 contracts), and another is a decent-sized block of puts on the FXI. Here's a look at the Chinese market which seems pretty toppy to me.

The Dow, likewise, can't seem to get past that ~9,000 level. If it did, it would have a decent change of crawling to just beneath 10,000; as it is now, it's looking pretty feeble.

And oil – – simply amazing – – has turned from darling (first half of this year) to dog (second half). This poor old critter is just coughing up blood.

A fellow Sloper put together a video he asked me to post; he does all the singing and guitar, and for you Neil Young fans (I confess, I'm not into him, but I know some folks are), you might get a kick out of this:

Paper Weight

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In all these years, I've never understood the logic of sending prospectuses (prospecti?) to traders. I mean, for Pete's sake, I usually don't know the name of the company I am trading, let alone what they do – – nor do I care. Why on earth would I want some huge prospectus? Does anyone actually read these things?

But today took the cake………..last week, I bought a small position in DXO. Today, in the mail, was about a 200 page (double-sided) printout. I kid you not.

That is seriously what I got; spread out on my desk. It's probably 1.5 inches thick. How many trees are dying each year due to these completely stupid printouts? Shouldn't this be an opt-in process for those couple of folks that actually want to read this stuff? Insane!

Speaking of paper, I took this snapshot yesterday of a couple of bits of currency that illustrate hyperinflation. These are from the former Yugoslavia; they are a 10 Billion Dinar note, and a 500 Billion Dinar note (the latter, I suppose, is for those who want supersized fries instead of just the regular).

Buh-Bye, Dubai

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It's fitting, I suppose, that after boring the world to tears with its gaudy, garish, outlandish construction, Dubai and its breathren are living in a world where crude oil has lost 75% of its value in half a year and seems to not have found a bottom. Couldn't have happened to a nicer place.

My DUG is doing great, as are my PM shorts. Oh, and Mr. Pink – -you're absolutely right. DZZ stinks. It's up, yes, but not nearly as much as I would have thought. Yuck. What a rip-off!