My "remainder of 2008" bearishness was the right tack today, as the Dow lost a couple hundred more points. I imagine as we approach the endpoint of the year, tax-loss selling (and, let's face it, there are a lot of losses to take) is going to generate selling pressure. As for interest rates, we took yet another plunge. Even the ten-year note is yielding just 2%, a record low.
I used to follow the NZD/USD with as much interest as I currently follow the EUR/USD; take note how the recent surge helped it tag the 50% retracement (which was strong support before), but now it's starting to fall away again.
Likewise, commodities – – – which in the eyes of the $CRX climbed over 40% in just one month's time! – – seem to have hit a brick wall.
My precious metals short did well today, but today's drop definitely took the "froth" out of the recent rise. Let's see if there's more downside to come; I imagine there is.
I've got a couple of index-based positions. One is a smallish short on the ES (12 contracts), and another is a decent-sized block of puts on the FXI. Here's a look at the Chinese market which seems pretty toppy to me.
The Dow, likewise, can't seem to get past that ~9,000 level. If it did, it would have a decent change of crawling to just beneath 10,000; as it is now, it's looking pretty feeble.
And oil – – simply amazing – – has turned from darling (first half of this year) to dog (second half). This poor old critter is just coughing up blood.
A fellow Sloper put together a video he asked me to post; he does all the singing and guitar, and for you Neil Young fans (I confess, I'm not into him, but I know some folks are), you might get a kick out of this:
