Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I've expanded my Watch Lists (shown on the right column; scroll down some; you can see the contets of any list by clicking on the Plus sign):
Take note of the new lists, Candidates Short and Candidates Long. Those are items on my radar screen for potential positions.
Having gone through all my charts, I was able to uncover more long opportunities than my last post would suggest. If things do start finally turning upward at some point, I'd like a set of good stocks to buy in order to benefit from the ride.
I think most of us would agree that individual stocks are heavily influenced by the market in general. No matter how fantastic a company and its earnings are, if the entire market is in a free-fall, an individual stock is going to have a tough time defying everything else.
Based on this, I've always subscribed to the "top-down" approach to choosing stocks; that is, starting with the big indexes, then industry groups, and then individual stocks.
Looking at my current holdings, however (of which there are nearly 200), it's hard to get away from the fact that, in spite of a wide variety of stocks from a reasonable different number of sectors, the short positions are far more compelling than the longs. The shorts look fantastic – – – if you didn't know what the market was doing, you wouldn't guess nearly 50% of the market had been chopped off already; these issues have tons of downside potential. The longs, on the other hand, are almost sympathy plays. They're decent, I guess, and might push up a bit, but on the whole they are pathetic compared to the shorts.
That's a difficult conclusion to reach, because looking at the broad market indexes, they seem ready to push higher. It's discomfiting, to say the least, to be looking at a stock market which seems poised to push higher yet find the vast majority of opportunities on the short side.
I sure hope things clear up with the new year. Things are just a mess right now.
I have
to read dozens of articles every day to pick out the timeliest and most
pertinent for our readers. With the startling news coming out daily, even as
cynical as I have gotten, I can't keep up.
The
Federal Reserve destroyed the dollar last week along with the $3.7 trillion
dollar money market fund industry and all savers. If a money market invests in
the safest dollar instrument, 90-day t-bills, the return is zero. It still
costs money for administration, how does a money market stay in business? If you
get a zero-percent return on your savings, how much do you want to save, given
that there is great risk in even the dollar?
It's
over folks; the Fed has fired its last cannon. Even the D-Word is being
mentioned on a regular basis. Interesting to me that the US government finally
admitted a couple of weeks ago that we have been in a "Recession"
since last December.
But we
aren't in a "Recession," it's a "Depression" for sure. It's
going to be worse than the last one, far worse. In 1932, we were the world's
biggest creditor nation. Our currency was backed by gold. If you reached in
your pocket for change, it was silver and copper, not slugs.
Now we
are the world's biggest debtor nation and we are throwing money down black
holes and telling taxpayers it's in their best interest. Really?
GM has
lost $80 billion dollars over the last 4 years. Their sales went down 37% in November
alone. Handing money to them is like handing money to a crackhead.
The
Federal Funds rate, the rate for lending overnight between banks is now
officially targeted between .25% and zero. It can go no lower. Now the only
question is how low can the US dollar go. I'm not sure; I don't think it will
go away. I think they will end up adding 3 zeros or 6 zeros or 9 zeros. If you
want to forecast the future, look at Argentina or Mexico or Brazil as they
destroyed their currency. Don't think for a moment it's not going to happen
here.
Bernanke
is doing his best to outspend Greenspan. Just as Greenspan is finally getting
full credit due for his serial bubbles, Ben "Helo" Bernanke is giving
the economy his best shot. If you suspect even for a moment that these guys
have a clue, watch Paulson on the boob tube with the sound turned off. He's as
nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. He knows what he
has done and can only pray the system holds together long enough for him to
escape.
The
prediction of a crisis coming at the time of the inauguration of Obama is
probably based on facts known to the government. I suspect the decision has
been made that an announcement of a bank holiday or something similar has
already been decided upon. We have a crisis, indeed the entire world's
financial system is coming unglued and everything the US government is doing is
only going to make the problem worse.
When
people have lost their jobs, their homes, their pensions and all hope of a
future, they are going to be pissed. We are going to have civil unrest. The
government will overact and people will be shot. The government would like to
have a nice Fascist State but we are more likely to see a revolution than a
police state.
You
still have a chance to protect your future. The government is doing everything
necessary to create hyperinflation. They have to, there is more debt than money
so they see inflation as the only solution. You can still take positive action
to protect yourself and your family.
Well, the ES finally broke 857; 850 is the next support level (these are all pretty tight together, so I'm not looking to make any fortune in the next couple of days). I'm updating my stops and looking for any new opportunities, but I don't feel the need to deploy all my cash until 2009 is live. In the meantime, this is one of my favorite movie clips ever.
