Overall, my portfolio took a 2.72% haircut today, since I'm skewed fairly bearish. My one index play – a teeny 5 contract position on the ES (price=908.50) – is small enough to keep me from being nervous. I think the ES has every prospect of pushing its way up to about 950, and I can't be wringing my hands about some mombo position.

Since my IRA account is all long, it had the best day, up about 6%. That's still kind of disappointing, since my holdings are all these cheap speculative positions; having a bunch of long-shots go up 6% when the boring old Dow is up about 4% is no great shakes.

In the Short Term Update from Elliott Wave International last night, they provided this chart: (note that they have granted me permission to reproduce charts here on an occasional basis, providing I give a hyperlink to their site):

As you can see, they have a target of about 951 before things start falling again; today's action covered about half the necessary group in order to make this happen……..

One thing that makes me optimistic that this countertrend rally doesn't have miles left to go is the EUR/USD chart. (Please click the Present tab to see the latest data; today's action isn't included in what you see below)

Let me say again, I agree with EWI that the S&P could have another 35 points or so to tack on, and I'm enjoying the gains in my long positions along the way. Fundamentally, the Fed's policy is a recipe for disaster, but that's not stopping them. Let the printing presses roll!

Given the dollar's plunge, I'm kind of amazed how OIH didn't do anything (I have no position). Gold, however, continues to push higher. That hasn't been kind to my precious metals shorts, but I'm holding. On a separate note, this ridiculous silver brick I bought (1,000 ounces – awkward to pick up……) is something I plan to sell before long, since it was a ridiculous purchase and I'll have the good fortune of actually turning a nice profit on it!

Anyway, I'm glad we got this Fed business out of the way; it seems to me we are at the end of the road as far as the Fed gymnastics are concerned. It seems that, for the forseeable future, they will simply continue their present policy. As for me, I have – as always – tightened up my stops, and I will get much more serious about shorting once we get towards that 950 level on the S&P.

G'night!

Although one of my three rules is that only closing price is a stop price, there are instances where the potential extra profit is dwarfed by the risk. My long position in SLW is one such example.

I bought this stock earlier this month for $2.80. It is up 100%. It could tack up perhaps another 50 cents or so, but I would rather take my 100% profit on this speculative position than hope I can see it climb a little higher.

Well, the Fed announced, and it appears we are now in a world of 0% interest rates. This is pretty exciting, because, as a bear, my big "worry point" was the EUR/USD, but it looks like it won't be terribly long before this starts to exhaust itself.

I actually clicked on CNBC to watch the announcement. I've never really watched Alan Blinder before, but he seems to have adopted every nervous twitch known to man; it's unsettling to watch. I also noticed a remarkable similarity to Alan Arkin.

I have shorted a tiny position (5 contracts) of ES at current levels, but I'm a weak hand. At the moment, the market is doing its usual post-Fed gymnastics.

SCHN 40
UAUA 12.38
XTO 40.80

Boring market today. Fireworks should start at 2:15 EST.

Four Short Ideas

Four Long Ideas

Please note this is going to be a "slow news day" until the Fed announcement, so it's going to be kind of quiet.