If there's anything I learned from the (miserable) experience of largely missing the March-Present run-up, it is this: trying to "out-think" the charts is stupid. If you look at a chart, and technically it make sense, and if you're a practicing technician………..well, you should take action! What I did was looked at the charts and talked myself out of it.
I face the same quandry with DIG. It's a great inverted head and shoulders pattern. Period. Therefore I'm buying it. A huge asterisk next to it is the disintegrating volume, but that's just the first of the "talk myself out of it" actions happening. I could also think about how it doesn't make sense for energy to be hot in a slumping world economy, or how the dollar is bound to push higher any day now. The list could go on and on; there are always to talk yourself out of a trade.
But I've got the chart. I've got the stop. I'm in the position. And I'm going to leave it alone unless it's stopped out. Because I need to let the chart do the talking, and not my brain.