Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Not Staying Here Long (by Springheel Jack)

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There was an encouraging break downwards yesterday afternoon on SPX and ES, but it didn't last, and it wasn't the right shoulder on the possible IHS forming on both charts. Will we form that right shoulder? I like the setup but the stats for today and Friday are strongly bullish, and strongly bearish for Monday. For this right shoulder to form would require almost exactly the opposite of that. We'll see. Here's the setup on ES, with negative 60min RSI divergence having reached such heroic proportions that I would no longer regard this as viable reversal signal:

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Simple Contrarian

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When it comes to politics, almost every person I've ever spoken with about it in my life is from the same party: Economically Conservative/Socially Liberal. It seems a sensible stance, doesn't it? Who wouldn't want to be prudent with money and open-minded about fellow humans? But obviously not everyone belongs to one party; there is a huge divergence of opinion.

Similarly, when it comes to investing, everyone seems to fancy themselves a contrarian. Who doesn't want to imagine that they and they alone are the ones courageous and intelligent enough to buck the groupthink of the herd? But, as with politics, it is absolutely certain that not everyone is a contrarian.

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Lazy Trade Long & Short: NTE & ETFC (by Ryan Mallory)

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While the market appeared to be satisfied with trading sideways, we've obviously changed course and the market is stroking the fears of Wall Street once again. I've added only one position on the day to my portfolio, which was a long in Philips (PHG) at $25.41. 

I'm watching NamTai Electronics (NTE) with a very close eye, and while it has give up its day's gains, I'm still watching it closely should it reverse and move to above $14.10 and out of the bull-flag pattern it is holding itself in, within the next day or two. 

On the short side, E-Trade (ETFC) has rallied nicely in the last 3 days, but it has gone straight into declining resistance, which offers and excellent trading opportunity, particularly with the market  pulling back after the Uncle Benny's therapy session. Ideal stop loss for ETFC is $8.44, and entry as close to $8.15 as possible. 

Here's the trade setups for today's swing-trade strategies.

Long: Nam Tai Electronics (NTE)

Nam Tai Electronics NTE swing trade long out of bull flag pattern

Short: E-Trade (ETFC)

E-Trade ETFC

Make sure to check out more of Ryan's swing-trading setups at SharePlanner.com

HUI-Gold Ratio; 3 Views, 1 Conclusion

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Here is a little snippet from NFTRH 213 that showed the important
indicator of gold sector health, the HUI-Gold Ratio (HGR) from three
different views; daily, weekly and monthly.  As you can see, daily must
hold to keep the weekly intact, which in turn must hold to keep the
monthly big picture of the secular bull (for the HUI, not this sad looking ratio) intact.

This is a difficult sector to own and indeed these charts say it is
best to trade the stocks regardless of what one does or does not do with
the bullion.  But the conclusion is that until the HGR breaks down to a
lower low, the current situation is viewed as a buying opportunity.  On
the other hand, HGR will serve as a handy risk management indicator if
it should unexpectedly collapse.  From #213:

hgr daily

Daily HUI-Gold Ratio (HGR) needs to hold a higher low to both the May and July lows here or else the story is bearish…

That is because a new low here would threaten the higher low from
Armageddon ’08, highlighted in yellow, per the chart directly below…

Which would in turn threaten 2008’s higher low to the one from the beginning of the bull market in 2000.

hgr weekly

hgr monthly

So you can see that it is kind of important that the daily HGR hold its parameter.

It is a simple conclusion; HGR must hold a higher low on the daily to
avoid a threat to the July and May lows so that the weekly view can
remain intact and not threaten the 2008 low and eventually, the secular
low of 2000.  Meanwhile, higher low status across all time frames means
the indicator is not broken, despite the formerly “normal” correction
that become somewhat intense last week.

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