Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Manage Your Risk or It Will Manage You

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Arguably, the most important part of a successful trading plan is sound risk management.  I've recently had to take another look at this as I am only human and fell back into some bad habits.  After a fantastic 2nd quarter and some decent gains, I feel I may have become overconfident and adjusted my position sizing too high. 

I pretty much broke even over the summer, but then took some large hits over Sept/Oct.  I have to admit, my rules for sizing in different market conditions were not very clear even to me and needed more definition.  Because of their loosely defined status, I had trouble really trusting my system and didn't have a plan for what to do when I had conflicting signals and which ones to prioritize.  This was a major mistake.  Thankfully, I know at this point to cut losers even when it hurts and overall I'm not really damaged just a bit disappointed.  There's no room for impatience in trading.

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Semi-Elect

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As much as I enjoy discussing politics, I have stayed far away from any political discussions on Slope. I once was a rather strident Libertarian, but I finally came to realize – – – and I'm quite serious about this – – – that I was projecting my own good sense and decency on the rest of the world and realized that, frankly, some folks actually DO need to be mollycoddled since they just don't have a clue. Libertarians, I'm afraid, have a rather optimistic view of human nature that perhaps might be misguided, as much as I wish that weren't the case.

I haven't been shy, though, about putting my stake in the ground not about my beliefs, but about my predictions: I think the popular vote is going to be one of those 48/52 or 49/51 type deals (with Obama squeaking out a victory) and a very lopsided Electoral College victory for Oh Bummer. In thinking about what's ahead for the markets, I would offer three scenarios.

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