There are a lot of dumb trading rules out there (and a few good ones), but one I hate particularly is: "If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong."
No, it isn't. Some of the greatest trades ever were "obvious". I present to you another one – the NASDAQ. I shorted it early this morning, during the retard-jobs-ramp, and I think it's headed to 2538.25
How's that for an unambiguous projection?