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As it was yesterday the technical picture is clear enough this morning. On the 60min chart SPX is now close to retesting both the 2012 high at 1474.51 and channel resistance on the rising channel from the November low. I will be looking for reversal there if that is reached and will assume that the channel will hold unless we see a clear break above it:
Well, my friends, looking at the ES chart below, it's pretty hard to conjure up anything bearish about it – – even if you squint really hard. Breakouts are happening everywhere, and the fact that the S&P 500 made a new five-year high today is all over the media.
The general operating plan has been toward a market that can drag on
into spring with a bullish bias. But in the short-term, over bought
markets can continue to correct. I have taken profits on some
overbought global positions and would like to watch for re-entry.
Interestingly though, the various ‘Gold Bugs’ data compiled by Sentimentrader.com
show an embattled sector that has scrunched even further to the left on
the graph above and is the lone item sitting in a good risk vs. reward
stance.
Even though ProphetCharts is my own product, I am still discovering things about it. Just yesterday, I figured out a cool little trick that some of you might like, particularly as we're heading into earnings season.
Let's say that you were curious when the earnings for, in this example, Facebook were going to be announced. You can press Ctrl-E in ProphetCharts, and all the events (including earnings, marked with a dollar sign) are displayed – – but that's just for the past.
As most of you know, I tend to be a straight-up short-the-stock kind of guy, rarely indulging in options trades. However, there are two stocks whose prospects for lower prices are so tantalizing to me that I put a little cash into my options account and secured puts in both positions. They are Chipotle (CMG) and HerbaLife (HLF).
Like I said, these are tiny positions, but they're doing nicely in the little bit of time I've owned them since an hour ago.
HerbaLife is a particular favorite of mine. Back when it was getting devastated last month in the mid-20s, I said if it ever got back to above $40, I'd love to short it. I thought it would be months before the public was blinkered enough to bid this stock back up, but it only took a couple weeks. Sure, it could go a little higher from here, but I think this stock is in profoundly serious technical trouble.
