Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Creep

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“As goes January, so goes the year.”

What a bunch of unmitigated crap. January was amazing. We started off instantly with a big drop, and the bulls were terrified and utterly on the run. It looked like 2016 was, at long last, going to be the Year of the Bear.

Ummm, nope. Indeed, as hope got smothered slowly since February 11, the final blow was dealt on May 24. There wasn’t even any particularly big news that day. But, from a charting perspective, that was the moist pair of fingertips that pinched the softly-glowing wick at the top of the candle and snuffed out ursine hope. I’ve tinted the fateful day in green. Since then, the market has been, quite reliably for the bulls, simply creeping up day after day. We are, as I type this, at new highs for the year.

0608-es

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Mixed Signals or a Clear Path Forward?

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[edit] Please see a new post with more perspective on a would-be ‘inflation trade’ and its limitations.

The following excerpt is the opening segment from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 398…

Last week’s opening paragraph: “If we are going to highlight improving fundamentals, which we did as gold out performed commodities and stock markets, then we also have to highlight and respect eroding fundamentals; no ifs, ands or buts.”

This week’s opening paragraph: If we are going to highlight eroding fundamentals, which we did as gold under performed commodities and stock markets and Semi Equipment made an early positive economic indication, then we also have to highlight and respect improving fundamentals; no ifs, ands or buts.

Gold is about the economy, the market risk profile, implied confidence in policy makers and above all, the state of money and the perceptions of billions of people who hold this ‘money’ issued by governments with “Legal Tender” or other wording to give the holder a feeling of confidence in its origin, its backing.

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A Dollar and (My) Two Cents

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Quite a Friday we had last week, huh? Upon checking my “End of Week” Charts, I noticed some interesting behaviour and thought I’d share my observations.  Last weekend sometime, I shared a weekly chart of the US Dollar and that it was approaching its 20 week MA.  I use the 20week and 20day moving averages as basic bull/bear filters.  I’m only bullish on stocks that are above both and I’m only bearish on stocks that are below both.

I find this makes for an easy and efficient filter.  I thought that the US Dollar had reversed short of the test until I saw it after the close Friday and realized it had tested the 20week MA exactly.  Take a look. (click any chart for a larger size version)

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