Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bonds ETF in Jeopardy

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The High-Yield Corporate Bonds ETF (HYG) is in jeopardy at major resistance.

The monthly chart below shows that price is facing double resistance at the confluence of a 60% Fibonacci retracement level at 89.29 and the upper edge of a large triangle formation (both of which began forming during the 2007/08 financial crisis to the 2009 lows).

Major support sits below at the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 83.98 and the triangle apex around 83.30.

The momentum indicator has dropped below the zero level on this timeframe, hinting of more weakness to come, as has been the case, historically. (more…)

True Believer Syndrome

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I’m going to start with a tale from about 180 years ago. In the early 1840s, a religious leader named William Miller believed the second coming of Jesus was foretold in the Bible with mathematical accuracy, and using a myriad of verses and tidbits from the Bible, he sought to compute as closely as possible when exactly J.C. was going to come back.

prophetcy

At first, he didn’t offer anything very exact:

Using an interpretive principle known as the day-year principle, Miller, along with others, interpreted a prophetic “day” to read not as a 24-hour period, but rather as a calendar year. Miller became convinced that the 2,300-day period started in 457 B.C. with the decree to rebuild Jerusalem by Artaxerxes I of Persia. His interpretation led him to believe and promote the year 1843. Despite the urging of his supporters, Miller never announced an exact date for the expected Second Advent. But he did narrow the time period to sometime in the Jewish year 5604, stating: “My principles in brief, are, that Jesus Christ will come again to this earth, cleanse, purify, and take possession of the same, with all the saints, sometime between March 21, 1843 and March 21, 1844.” (more…)

Homebuilders ETF Poised to Make a New All-Time High

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The Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is poised to make a new all-time high as it faces its peak set just before the 2007/08 financial crisis struck, as shown on the monthly chart below.

There are two interesting things I notice on this chart. The volume moving average has been steadily declining since September of 2013 as the momentum indicator is nearing its record peak set in May of 2013…hinting of potential profit-taking at current overheated levels.

So, whether, or not, we are about to see a rollover anytime soon should be revealed in coming days/weeks. Keep an eye on volumes and momentum, for possible clues.  Furthermore, as the Fed considers 3 to 4 interest rate hikes this year, no doubt mortgage rates would rise, as well, negatively impacting this sector.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is shown in the background as the blue area. If the XHB rolls over, it may also bring the SPX with it, but, as I described in yesterday’s post, keep an eye on HYG, as well. (more…)

The Mean Streets of Atherton

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People seem to think that Palo Alto is a “rich” town, just because the likes of Mark Zuckerberg, Marissa Mayer, and Larry Page live here. Not so. It’s full of slobs like me. The really rich town is Atherton, a few miles from here, populated by an increasingly large proportion of Indian billionaires.

As you might guess, Atherton law enforcement doesn’t struggle with the same crimes that, say, Baltimore or Detroit police do. Here’s a recent sampling: (more…)