OK, Doomer

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I keep my eyes wide open all the time

I keep the ends out for the tie that binds

Because you’re mine, I walk the line

Johnny Cash

Complacency never higher. Fear never lower. New highs every day. Such is the market we’re in. In the future, we will look back at these times and marvel. For now, some of you can consider it as Normal As Apple Pie. It isn’t.

Below is the intraday chart of the ES. There are two things of note:

  1. I’ve tinted each successive downturn. In every case, its depth (in points) and length (in days) is smaller and smaller. It’s gotten to the point now where if the market does dip, it does so for literally just a few minutes. You can’t even see the dips anymore.
  2. I’ve marked with an arrow the lifetime high close, which just happens to be precisely on the underside of a trendline that goes back to the December 26 2018 Steve “I’m a shameless scumbag who would sell my soul for a buck” Mnuchin bottom. As always, click any image for a big version.

Going back farther in time, and changing the bars to weekly instead of 4-hour, you can see the entirety of the trendline. You can also see the failed bullish breakout which took place in 2018, which was followed by the last decent selloff (a hefty 20%) we’ve witnessed. Jerome Powell immediately reversed every pledge and position he took (remember “it’s on auto-pilot”???) since obviously the man doesn’t have an ounce of integrity.

I would also like to point out a tweet from my buddy Atilla. To be clear, Atilla is no permabear. On the contrary, he went crazy jumping-up-and-down bullish in October, at almost the perfect millisecond, and he scored over 600 points from the trade. But he has closed it out, and I find his latest prediction quite intriguing.

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