If I were to characterize the nature of my portfolio currently, it would be like the old saying: “Put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket.” Well, ok, it’s three baskets. Instead of having dozens of positions based on individual equities, I’ve changed to a very small number of ETFs. I wanted to walk through those with updated charts.
First up is my anchor position, the utilities XLU. It’s doing great. The profit on the options is about 53%, and I think its move is just getting started. This is probably my favorite chart in months, if not years.
I’m also terribly fond of the small caps IWM. Whereas the XLU features a diamond pattern and a sinewave, the IWM is more about the sinewave and Fibonaccis. Here, too, I think the move is only getting started. I said I’d dump it at 190, but ya know, I think I’ll dump part of it (if it gets there) and hang on to the rest. I’ve got three months of runway, after all.
Even with only three positions, I managed to screw up one of them today, which was XOP. It opened strong, and I panicked and got out. It was at one of the worst prices of the day, and although XOP did close up, and also closed near the day’s lows. So I’m out of this, but I still think this is a good, solid short setup.
What I did instead, which partly made up for my mistake, was get into XLE puts at a good price. We’ve got a trendline failure on this one, and it still allows me to participate in energy since I’m out of the aforementioned fund.
In sum, I’ve got March puts on XLU and IWM and June puts on XLE. That’s all I’ve got to say about the market, so I’ll see you in the morning!
