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Just one simple chart for you here: the Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD). The price is absolutely rammed perfectly against the apex of the triangle. This should – – I would almost say MUST – – fall on Monday. Failing that, it’s time for start a career in aluminum siding sales.
Hey, stupid! Why not just buy longs and be done with it?
Yep, that’s the kind of cruel query I pose to myself after times like, oh, the past eight trading days (kicked off on the morning of 9/11, appropriately enough, when Jensen Huang talked up his own stock and kicked off a multi-trillion-dollar worldwide equity rally). The lifetime-highs-every-day rallies we get compel me, from time to time, to put together hypothetical “what if I just bought a bunch of good-looking stocks?” portfolios and track them over time. I’d like to share this updated data with you now.
The construction of these portfolios is easy to explain: I go through all my charts as I normally would, and I try to pick out the very best setups. Here, for instance, are a dozen stocks (a pretend $120,000 portfolio evenly divided into starting $10,000 positions) that I “bought” on July 31st. As you can see, in spite of us being at lifetime highs, it’s a mixed bag: 5 winners and 7 losers, yielding a small loss and an annualized -3.1% return.
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I’ve been very pleased at the reception of my novel Solid State, which I’ve been publishing in a serialized form over on Substack. Folks seem to like getting a bite-sized chapter each day. I’ve broken up this monster of a tale into 73 (!!!) chapters, which will be emailed for free every weekday until the end of the year.
If you want to catch up, please do so – – here are the links to the first five chapters, all of which tumbled out this past week.
Assets are all joined at the hip. Gold. Equities. Bitcoin. It’s all the same. They tend to move up and down together. Because of that, crypto merits respect, even if its own wanderings are just an approximation of what equities are doing. Here’s the thing that’s important to remember: in spite of all the lunatic price projections for Bitcoin over the years, the price is lower NOW than it was 41 MONTHS AGO. Yep, buying Bitcoin in April 2021 would have yielded you a loss after all this time.
More germane for the present, BTC has still been engaged in a series of lower highs, which is the very essence of a downtrend (albeit a recent one). Don’t count on BTC to save the day anymore.
