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I’ve been delighted at the ascent of precious metals lately. However, I think it’s awfully stretched at the moment, so I’ve put in a short-term trade (November puts) on GLD in anticipation of a retracement of the gold futures back down to its 50-day moving average.
I was struck, while reading the latest Elliott Wave International Update, how despondent those chaps seem. I’ve read their stuff for many years, so I tend to know their tone and style, and they’re seriously in F-It mode at this point. I can understand why, as my white flag a few days ago illustrated, but I must say, I was impressed on Friday evening to see something on the Dow I haven’t seen in ages: a very well-formed shooting star candlestick.
Although I sold my BOIL a while back, I still look at it, and natural gas, at least once a day. That extremely long-term cycle pattern is still holding sway, and I point it out only because it’s the only powerful cycle I think I’ve ever seen on any chart.
The past week was all about China, and their pathetic efforts to goose their stumbling, debt-ridden Communist economy. It worked, to be sure, for the few days they were pumping the hell out of it, but I would like to point out the relative position of the emerging markets fund over the past few years.
My two unabashed bullish calls – – gold and bonds – – have been doing fine. I think precious metals are going to ease back for a while, but bonds seem well positioned to make another push higher.
My general theme is that not only are interest rates going to fall, but they’re also going to keep falling to the point where it finally dawns on us all we’re in a severe deflationary environment. All this celebration and back-slapping about interest rate cuts is going to lead up to a holy-crap moment.
