Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Trends Up, Bull On, Risk High

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The opening segment from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 829: Trends Up, Bull On, Risk High (Macro Discussion)

The segment’s title might also read “Another Week, Status Unchanged”, as it has been for so long now. That status targets “to or through the election” [for the broad bull rally], as it has all year long (with a few caution points along the way).

I’d like to go back to one of my favorite charts illustrating the macro situation of 2024. While some are giddy (the casual public “playing” a stock market that always goes up, eventually), some are pissed (those who have staked their marketing schemes, and thus their reputations, on a perma-bearish view) and some are bewildered (mainstream investment houses retooling their outlooks in lagging fashion with every interim macro event/turn), we simply follow our guides, like the 2 year Treasury yield’s divergence to the (Fed proxy) 3 month T-bill yield, which is now finally starting to adjust to the divergence, as expected.

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