Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Rationalizing Lunacy

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There is one realm of my life in which I feel an utter kinship with equity permabulls: Bay Area Real Estate. See, most of my net worth is based on it. My cost basis is very, very low, because I bought it cheaply a long time ago, and for my entire adult life, all I’ve heard about is how overpriced it is, how it’s going to crash, and how stupid I am not to sell it Right This Second. So, believe me, I have a certain amount of sympathy for owners of, say, NVDA or AMZN listening to yo-yos like me telling them to dump their shares ASAP and being wrong forever.

I thought about this because of a recent full-page ad that appeared in our local paper for a real estate firm that put together an ostensibly objective study about prices in these parts. I’m going to share it below and then say a few words afterward………….

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Special Delivery

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United Parcel Service (UPS) has been banging around, going nowhere, since July 27th. On my entire screen of quotes, it is the only red today at all. It hasn’t broken down from its range, but by God, it’s trying. If we can break $125, it opens the window up to a move through that entire white zone.

I’ve got $130 puts with an expiration way out into March 21st, to give this tons of time to work out.