Walmart. Sam Walton opened the first store in 1962 in Bentonville, Arkansas, and the company has done nothing but grow since. Despite that success, Walmart’s stock does not always go up.
With the uncertainty of the effect of tariffs placed on imports from China, in their earnings report of February 20, 2025 Walmart acknowledged that earnings for 2025 would be below expectations.
On 3Mar25 I did a post on Walmart reflecting that its chart looked vulnerable to downside risk. As it turned out, it was a timely post, price dropping the next trading day and ending a month later at the year’s low. In the daily chart below, the purple highlight on the left marks the date of that post. Note where the Ichimoku Cloud is (green & red dotted horizontals).
It is time again to review Walmart’s chart for potential downside risk. First and foremost, a double top was made with the 8 August high. That double top looks especially significant on the monthly chart. Yes, a wide price range over those seven and a half months [high/104.51; low/79.43], yet price is clearly honed to fight – vulnerable – at about 97. Top of the Ichimoku Cloud (dotted green horizontal) is 96.50.
Secondly, price has lost two major lines (red) of support: 1) the uptrend from the 1974 low; and 2) the uptrend from the 1999 high.
Last week price traded down each day. Even so, it looks like just the beginning of the drop. I could be wrong about that but Walmart’s chart is weak overall. Note that the Cloud is uber thin, then note the near proximity of losing the blue channel support, and that the test of support from the 1974 green uptrend is not far below. Losing the 1974 uptrend, it could get greasy.
The blue triangle break line I’ve added on this weekly chart doesn’t only show the price break up, but matters also to the downside; it is another confirmation of whether price is gaining or losing. If price does head down to support of the top 1999 purple trendline, it may put the gap at 67.93 (fuchsia) into play.
For perspective, here is Walmart’s long term yearly chart.
Since we’re on the subject of retail, this is an article on “Sol Price: The Godfather of Costco, Walmart, and Modern Retail, …the most influential retailer you’ve never heard of. Have you ever wondered why you can still buy a hot dog and soda for $1.50 today at Costco? We can thank Sol Price for that.”
Happy Sunday! Have a great trading week.
