On the 2nd of June I wrote a post looking at the bullish looking setup on oil, but that then fell apart in the days before the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed by President Trump at Versailles on 17th June. In the three weeks since then the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTIC) crudes have fallen almost to pre-war levels before the most recent low last week.
Now after any steep decline there will generally be a low found and a bounce will start that should at least retrace a sizable proportion of the preceding decline, usually in the 38.2% to 61.8% range. I’ve been watching for that bounce and I think that has now likely started, though that doesn’t mean we won’t see retests of last week’s lows as part of that process.
So what’s the setup so far?
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