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The decline into last week’s low was slightly over 2%, so the break back over the 5dma, now at 2457/8, has put SPX back on the Three Day Rule. In the event of a daily close more than two handles below the 5dma today or tomorrow, then historically there would be a retest in the near future of last week’s low at 2437. This is the highest probability historical stat that I watch. SPX daily 5dma chart:
Yesterday’s trend down day was a refreshing change of pace, and may well be the start of a decent decline, but the key is that a firm lid is kept on today’s rally, and that there is follow through to the downside early next week.
A move like the move yesterday that breaks and closes well below the daily standard (two standard deviation) lower band often starts the strongest kind of daily lower band ride that trades between the 2sd and 3sd lower bands. To make that a likelihood here the 2sd lower band needed to be resistance today, and it has been so far. SPX daily chart:
From what I’ve been hearing on the news I’m assuming that this week is International Overblown Hyperbole Week so I have given a nod to that in the title today.
Back here on earth the trend down day today has cleared out some support levels and SPX may well be starting a daily lower band ride, though obviously that will need some follow through tomorrow.
I’ll skip the futures charts today and expand on the index charts as it now seems likely that this much delayed pullback is at last getting started. If you would like to see the futures charts that I was looking at this morning they are on the my premarket video for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. I posted that on my twitter before the open and if you missed that then you can see it here. Other instruments covered in the video as well as ES, NQ & TF (covered at the start of the video) are CL, NG, GC, HG, DX, ZB, KC, SB, ZW, CC, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD. (more…)
SPX spiked to a new all time high yesterday and then rejected hard from that high, and the lower highs at the same time on NDX and RUT. Today is about the bears following through on that rejection and the key objective for bears on SPX is to close the day below the daily middle band, currently at 2471. If seen, that then needs to be confirmed with another close below tomorrow. SPX daily chart:
It has been a dull summer week, and of SPX, NDX and RUT, only RUT has managed a lower low this week. RUT has now made it, albeit rather lethargically, almost back to channel resistance, now in the 1416 area, and I’ve noted that this may be the right shoulder of an H&S pattern forming. RUT 60min chart:
